Downtime Analysis Techniques for Complex Offshore and Dredging Operations

Offshore operations in open seas may be seriously affected by the weather. This can lead to a downtime during these operations. The question whether an offshore structure or dredger is able to operate in wind, waves and current is defined as “workability”.
In recent decades improvements have been made in the hydrodynamic modelling of offshore structures and dredgers. However, the coupling of these hydrodynamic models with methods to analyse the actual workability for a given offshore operation is less developed. The present paper focuses on techniques to determine the workability (or downtime) in an accurate manner.
Two different methods of determining the downtime are described in the paper. The first method is widely used in the industry: prediction of downtime on basis of wave scatter diagrams. The second method is less common but results in a much more reliable downtime estimate: determination of the 'job duration' on basis of scenario simulations.
The analysis using wave scatter diagrams is simple: the downtime is expressed as a percentage of the time (occurrences) that a certain operation can not be carried out. This method can also be used for a combination of operations however using this approach does not take into account critical events. This can lead to a significant underprediction of the downtime.
For the determination of the downtime on basis of scenario simulations long term seastate time records are used. By checking for each subsequent time step which operational mode is applicable and if this mode can be carried out the workability is determined. Past events and weather forecast are taken into account.
The two different methods are compared and discussed for a simplified offloading operation from a Catenary Anchor Leg Mooring (CALM ) buoy. The differences between the methods will be presented and recommendations for further applications are given.