Probabilistic Design of Channel Widths
Author Ji Lan, J.T.M. van Doorn and D. ten Hove
Title Probabilistic Design of Channel Widths
Conference/Journal PIANC MMX Congress, Liverpool, UK
Month May
Year 2010

Abstract
To date, probabilistic design methods of channel widths are still under development. This is partly
because there are no suitable models available. Real-time simulators are too expensive and time
consuming to be often applied for full probabalistic channel design. While autopilot fast-time simulation
models exclude one very important factor – human behavior - so that the results need further
interpretation.
In order to fill the gap between the two existing simulation methods, a new simulation model, namely
probabilistic fast-time simulation model is developed in the study. The new model takes four main
variables related to human behavior into account, i.e. varied time intervals of command settings,
rudder error, position threshold and rudder threshold. The properties of the four variables are derived
from and verified with Ennore real-time simulations. The recommended input parameters of the new
model are suitable for big vessels transiting straight one-way outer channel sections. The new
simulation model is applied for probabilistic design of the access channel to the port of Coega. The
resulting channel widths are reasonable. Therefore, the development and application of the new
probabilistic fast-time simulation model can be regarded successful and promising.

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